By Josef Joffe Monday, May. 17, 2010 ,TIME
可以肯定的是，希臘是一個很小的經濟體，小到只有德國的十分之一。所以儘管希臘政府的債務不樂觀，歐洲仍能承擔，並且讓希臘能夠走在經濟正軌上。但，希臘只是最嚴重的例子之一，後頭還有葡萄牙、西班牙、義大利 (歐洲四豬國 PIGS) 。西班牙和義大利才是規模較大的經濟體。以上這些情形引申出第四種方案：這個方案曾在聯盟初建之時實施：一個經濟共同體，必須按時程一步步地等速前進。
Greece, to be sure, is a small economy, about one-tenth the size of the German one, so other Europeans can afford to keep Greece on track even if its government will not risk death by pleasing its creditors. But Greece is just the most egregious problem. Next in line is Portugal, followed by Spain and Italy — and these latter two are economies of real size. All of which implies a fourth solution, which should have been imposed in 1999 when monetary union took off: a system of economic governance that keeps speeds and timetables in sync.
理論上，只有一個方法可以防止未來走向希臘。但政治與理論可不能相提並論。哪個理論學說可以處理這樣的金融體制呢？是德國堅持要用財政訓練的方法？或是法國一直斥責德國沒有同情心，要犧牲出口盈餘來刺激國內公共需求，讓所得可以提高的方法？「停下腳步來，讓後面其他人可以跟上」不再是句口號，而是會全面在莫爾克島上實施。 (編按：德國總理為Angela Merkel，這邊的「Merkel Land」非歐洲大陸上地名，猜想是作者以「莫爾克之島」來指稱德國。)
Logically, this is the only way to prevent future Greeces. But logic is not the same as politics. Whose rules would govern such a system? Germany's, with its insistence on fiscal discipline? Or those of France, which demands more vice from the Germans, that is, to sacrifice their export surpluses by stimulating domestic demand and letting wages creep up? "Slow down so that others may keep up" is not a slogan that will go over well in Merkel Land.(See whether the Greek bailout will be a savior for the euro.)
歐盟不會讓單一個工程師開動一整台火車，它會繼續混亂下去。沒必要成為一場災難，但歐盟寧可從這些事情中重新整理振作起來。所以，也許希臘災難會是一聲「有益的」響鐘：不可能在同個經濟體中，卻沒有監督者以及緊急危機處理措施。歐盟對希臘其他各國的情況了然於心很多年了，但，卻選擇了「忽視」，放任讓他們自己解決問題。
Europe will not choose a single engineer to run the entire train. It will continue to muddle through. That is not necessarily a disaster, but rather the way Europe was built, with disaster followed by renewal. So the Greek calamity, which is far from over, may be a salutary wake-up call. You can't have monetary union without a system of supervision and crisis-control. The E.U. has known what Greece and others have been doing for years, but it chose not to notice, let alone to intervene.
所以歐洲將會利用這次緊急貸款的機會，在可允許的時間內導入嚴格的規定。就像銀行如何對付那些帳戶透支卻又濫用特權的客戶一樣，必須讓一個機構在旁糾正錯誤，以便防止債務不斷擴大。經過這次的疏貸方案石沉愛琴海後，糟糕到任何事都可能發生的歐洲將會恐慌性償債，而這個代價將更加昂貴，到時候將帶領歐元走向大潰退。
So Europe might use the time afforded by the emergency loans to install a rigorous early-warning system — just as banks do when their clients abuse their overdraft privileges. It should be flanked by a mechanism for an orderly default that keeps contagion from spreading. The worst of all possible worlds is a panicky default after a few more rescue packages have sunk in the Aegean. It will be a lot more expensive, and the run on the euro may turn into a stampede.
Joffe 為德國時代週報(Die Zeit)編輯、國際j關係研究協會、史丹佛大學胡佛研究所研究員
Joffe is editor of Die Zeit and a fellow of the Institute for International Studies and of the Hoover Institution at Stanford University
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